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5G Policy Recommendations

The mobile industry has been the driving force behind the technology evolution over the last decade. The direct and indirect impact of the industry is calculated in trillions of dollars. There are over 3 billion mobile Internet users, 5 billion unique mobile subscribers and over 9.2 billion mobile connections.[1] The number of companies generating more than a billion dollars from digital services ballooned from just 4 in 2010 to over 120 in 2018.[2] The ecosystem continues to expand, and innovation is thriving. And yet again, we are at the cusp of dramatic change as the wireless industry embarks on the 5G evolution cycle.[3] There are several other trends that are also shaping the ecosystem. The cable companies, wireline players, Internet giants, and upstarts all see wireless as a key part of the industry stack and as such they are making their moves to be a significant player in shaping the next decade.

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[1] As of Q1 2019

[2] Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2019

[3] Mobile Network as a Platform: Planning for the 5G World http://www.chetansharma.com/publications/mobile-network-platform-planning-for-the-5g-world/

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Announcing Mobile Future Forward 2019 – Connected Intelligence 2030

10 years ago, we started Mobile Future Forward which has become industry’s premier brainstorming and strategy summit. Our goal was simple – bring together some of the brightest minds in the industry and empower the forum to discuss the future scenarios, trajectories, disruptions, and business models. We have stayed true our original vision. Over the years, Mobile Future Forward has played a key role in the exploration of opportunities many years before they become mainstream – the mobile data tsunami, the 4th wave, Connected Intelligence, Privacy and Security, IoT and Connected Devices, AI and Verticals, Autonomous, 5G, Edge Computing, and much more.

We take pride in consistently being ahead of the curve. As we plan our 10th Mobile Future Forward, we stand at the cusp of a massive disruption cycle that will shape the global economies for years to come. In fact, our thesis is that we are in a unique technological evolutionary cycle wherein many seismic trends are occurring at the same time. We are preparing for an ambitious agenda as we will delve into exponential growth impacting linear industries, new innovations changing the trajectory of competition, sensors and software enabling a programmable world of immense potential, and new experiences changing consumer’s perception of technology, data, and privacy.

On behalf of the Mobile Future Forward team and our fabulous partners, we invite you to join us to be part of Connected Intelligence 2030.

Date: Sept 4th, 2019 in Seattle

Partners: Aptiv, Hyla Mobile, Oracle, PwC, Qualcomm

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5G Maturity Model

As regular readers know, Chetan Sharma Consulting has been doing research into the 5G opportunities for a long time. We are proud to release our 9th paper in this series that explores a fundamental question around the notion of the “5G Race.” There has been a lot of noise around the race but no models that can measure the race in an intellectually honest way. This paper attempts to do that.

5G Maturity Model: If 5G is a Race, How should we Measure it?

It has become a cliché to say that mobile has transformed every industry. While the industry was born back in the seventies, it wasn’t until 4G and LTE came along that mobile really started to intersect with the larger global economics. The high-speed broadband capability has its obvious advantages of connecting people and things with information at rapid speed. Not only were the existing industries impacted, but we also started to create some new ones like rideshare that totally upended the transportation sector or mobile video advertising that reshaped not only traditional advertising but also digital advertising. Governments started to realize the importance of a healthy and robust mobile ecosystem for their respective countries. US clearly led the way for the last decade and the economic activity that mushroomed from it has been unprecedented. The likes of Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix, and Uber have thrived in this environment. China found its voice on the global stage with the advent of Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Huawei, and Baidu. India’s commerce sector started to explode with Paytm, FlipKart, and Ola.

As we stand at the cusp of the 5G wireless network technology curve, the world is looking at the next disruptive cycle with nervous anticipation and heightened expectations. There is a general consensus amongst the governments that 5G is an important element of their economy roadmap so much so that they need to be active in shaping it. In fact, the media and the policy makers have christened the frenzy as “5G Race” and nobody wants to be left behind in this economy-defining disruptive cycle.

So, if we are in a “5G Race,” how should we define it? How should we formulate the variables that can effectively and honestly measure it? There is clearly too much hype, much more than the past, a lot of misunderstanding, plenty of fear-mongering, and no clear consensus on the measurement framework. If you want to get the attention of the policy makers, all you have to do is shout “5G Race” from the top of your roof and you are likely to get more spectrum from the regulators on an accelerated schedule, more funding from congress, and an undivided attention from the top echelons of the government.

However, if we are going to be intellectually honest about the assessment, we must get past the hysteria and develop an iterative framework that can stand the test of time and can prove to be a useful tool for everyone involved. It should be free from bias and forward looking. The relative progress can spur the governments, operators, and local ecosystems to become more energized and inspired to move fast. Being first doesn’t necessarily give one an inherent advantage unless it is followed up with an effort to build a robust ecosystem to take advantage of the new cycle. Just launching a few base stations or small cells might earn you a few useless press releases but little else.

The global economy is complex and so is the mobile ecosystem as such the framework must reflect that. It must be a multi-dimensional model that takes a look at both the subjective and analytical metrics. The framework must look at structural, ecosystem, financial, and, operational metrics that can attempt to provide us a complete picture of the 5G progress in any given country especially as it relates to its peers. While there have been early attempts to “quantifying” the race, they have been primarily written to influence the regulators and government officials rather to provide an objective analysis. Others have been too narrow in their approach for the analysis to be meaningful.

The development of the “5G Maturity Model” or “5G Race” is complex because there are a number of elements that go into analyzing the progress and impact of 5G. Countries come in different shapes and sizes, different GDP and economic fabric, different ARPUs and ARPAs, and different consumer behavior and spending propensity. One has to normalize all of that to get a better assessment of who is ahead. Even though, some of the interpretation of the data will be subjective but our hope is that by building a more comprehensive model that can be iterated over time, one can develop a better lens through which we can peer through the growth trajectory curves. For e.g. if 5G Race is measured by the number of base stations, China will win the race even before everyone is ready or if it measured by % penetration, some of the smaller countries like Korea or Finland will be way ahead of everyone. Or MHz/pop or network coverage or revenue generated, etc. Each of these variables provide an important input to the model and framework but independently they can only provide an incomplete story.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss a first of its kind 5G Maturity Model and the variables that are important to the analysis. This model can not only provide adequate measurement insights but also give guidance to governments, operators, and the ecosystem as to where they stand relative to their peers. Given that we are still fairly early into the cycle, many of the variables don’t have adequate data, some can’t be reliably measured (in such cases we must rely on our subjective assessments), and we might be missing some variables because we don’t completely understand how 5G will shape the global economy. The goal of this exercise is to provide a living model that can be adjusted on an ongoing basis and provide input to strategists and policy makers around the world.

The paper looks at 25 different variables across five different dimensions for 16 major markets to get a sense of where countries are in their 5G journey. While the framework in this paper focuses on comparing nations on 5G maturity, the model can also be used to compare 5G maturity amongst the operators. The 5G Maturity Model is a living framework that can be updated and adapted on a regular basis as more data becomes available to get a sense of global 5G competitiveness at any given point in time.

Your feedback is always welcome

Chetan Sharma

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5G Series

Regular readers know that we have been working on 5G for sometime, looking at the economic models, working on strategies for ecosystem clients, and trying to understand the disruptive power of the new changes to come. However, we do see some basic problems in how operators are thinking about 5G around the globe. So, we thought about capturing some of my thoughts in the 6-series column that will run in Fiercewireless.

The first part ran yesterday – https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/industry-voices-sharma-industry-s-5g-moment-will-operators-rise-to-meet-challenge

Let us know what you think.

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Mobile World Congress 2019 Roundup

Every technology transition brings in the sense of excitement for what could be next. In multi-dimensional shift that touches every layer of the stack, every company in the ecosystem, and every country in the global economy, MWC provides a platform to understand and feel the movements of the tectonic plates. Chetan Sharma Consulting participated in a number of sessions and panels throughout the show. We also had formal and informal discussions with several key executives in the industry and of course, we did our usual rounds of the show floor. This note presents the summary of our observations from the show.

Connected Intelligence and 4th Wave: Regular readers know that we have been exploring our thesis of Connected Intelligence (CI) and 4th Wave for the past seven years. This year, MWC’s underlying theme was “Intelligent Connectivity” which is a subset of the CI framework that discusses the broader technology cycle. Huawei has completely coopted the framework and now it is their tagline. I guess the notion of the Connected Intelligence cycle is becoming more mainstream now. Mobile services are what is driving the ecosystem and the global economy. 4th wave was a discussion topic for many operators. Music to our ears. The role of 4th wave will be even more critical in the evolution of 5G ecosystem.

5G, 5G, 5G: As expected, the overarching theme of the show was “5G is here and open for business.” The star of the show was Qualcomm which managed do some incredible ecosystem jujitsu to help launch several 5G devices. Samsung got the press started by launching the device a week earlier. LG, Xiaomi, Oppo, ZTE, Huawei, Motorola, etc. followed. If you have been involved in the supply chain of the handset design and launch, one can appreciate what an impressive feat this was. While we can debate 5G value proposition, timelines, and roadmaps, the fact that a number of such handsets came to the market in a rapid fashion even before the networks is one heck of an engineering feat.

5G Forecasts: There are strong expectations as to what 5G will do to the ecosystem with GSMA forecasting 15% of the global connections being 5G by 2025. Furthermore, it is expected that $2.2 trillion in global economy will be contributed by 5G.

Keynotes: KT’s CEO Chang-Gyu Hwang probably gave the best keynote address talking about the solutions roadmap for the industry.

5G Handsets: Perhaps the most impressive 5G handset from the price/performance point of view was from Xiaomi which launched a power packed 5G handset for only $650 when its competitors are generally above $1000 in price point. As usual, there was speculation about 5G iPhone launch which is when the market might catch fire. In the meantime, Android OEMs will do their darnest to create some space for Apple to follow.

Will China provide 5G growth acceleration? China was clearly late to the 4G party and is still at least 2 years behind in coverage compared to US/Korea/Japan. However, with 5G, it wants to take an early and dominant role. Xiaomi is already out with a cheap(er) 5G device, many in China are expecting $100 5G devices which might change the growth trajectory of 5G adoption in the country and elsewhere.

5G Remote Surgery: When 5G initial concepts started to float around, remote surgery figured prominently to much ridicule in the industry. Well, MWC had a live 5G demo (over Vodafone network) of a surgery done by gastrointestinal surgeon Dr. Antonio de Lacy, performed with the full consent of the patient. Low latency, high bandwidth, and network slicing played a role in make E2E world’s first human surgery work. A milestone for sure but I didn’t see any lines of attendees trying to cash in on the offer a free surgery while they were in Barcelona.

Foldable Handsets: Foldable handsets have been part of human imagination since the early days. I was so fascinated by the notion early on that I talked about it in my first book back in 2000. It took longer than expected but the next phase of smartphone design has started that is likely to include foldable and rollable displays. Press is too focused on the price which of course will be high for the first-generation devices but with time, in2-3 years, we are likely to see price points of current generation of devices. Combine that with the 5G cycle and we are looking at some dramatic data growth on cellular networks. One day we might look at the single screen smartphones like we view featurephones today.

5G Business Case: While there is general enthusiasm about the new network cycle, there is a genuine concern in many quarters about deploying the CAPEX before the business case is solidified. The usual suspects – Japan, Korea, China, and US are pretty optimistic while Europeans are looking at the network cycle with more caution. European regulators were also being blamed for the Nordics and some Middle-East operators have also joined the race to be the first. Rest of the world is taking a wait and see approach.

HoloLens in the Enterprise: Microsoft chose MWC to dazzle with its HoloLens 2 release. Smartly, they are going after the enterprise market with the $3500 device. There are number of enterprise use cases and demo lines indicated strong interest.

Greenfield Operators: Last year, Jio impressed the attendees with its extremely rapid pace of deployment and subscriber acquisition. This year, it was Rakuten, the Japanese greenfield operator who is building the cloud-native network in record time. In fact, this probably the best time to consider a green-field opportunity as one can build the nationwide network at much lower cost and transform the local competitive market. The burden of legacy pulls the operators down in considering new initiatives and they have a hard time straddling the complex ecosystem.

Flexible Displays: Extending the theme of flexible displays, Nubia had a smartwatch/phone with a flexible screen. Clunky, yes! But an indication of things to come.

Antenna Stripes: One of the most intriguing technology was from Ericsson with an antenna strip that can be put anywhere, and it can work with your macro/micro network to extend coverage. The world of possibilities could be extended. The technology is still in R&D and it might be 5 years before we could see the commercialization, but it opens lots of new possibilities.

Edge Computing: Intel had some interesting demos that can take 5G, Edge Computing, Computer vision to enable pop-up retail stores at scale. These are Amazon Go like stores but without any humans and completely automated. Intel has a pretty good E2E Edge story. Mobile operators are gearing up to play a role in Edge Cloud. Azure and AWS are viewed as incumbents though their edge strategy is not well-thought-out, they still want to send the data to the mothership vs. doing innovative stuff at the edge. Next 2-3 years will be interesting to prove out the use cases, performance KPIs, and adoption of edge in workflow processes.

US 5G: Sprint had a big coming out party with announcements on its 5G rollout in 1H19 with specific coverage numbers for the 9 cities it is putting its 2.5GHz spectrum to use. The coverage parameters include 1085 square miles with 6.8M pops covered.

5G Race: The narrative of a 5G race continued unabated at the show. We think such a discussion is misplaced without any specific framework on parameters that define the 5G progress. Press loves a horse race and industry bodies use it to influence nation’s spectrum policy. We will have more to say on this subject in the coming days.

AR/Edge Computing: There were a number of VR/AR edge computing use cases with demos but MobiledgeX’s demo with Niantic, Deutsche Telekom, and Samsung probably got the point across the best in a live gameplay on the show floor. The latency of < 15-20 ms enables multiplayer AR games in a localized environment where location has to be shared with multiple players in real-time.

Geopolitical games: The geopolitical tension in the wireless world was front and center from the very beginning of the show. Whether it was public speeches or private discussions, the trade war speculation had as many opinions as the number of attendees at the show. Huawei didn’t shy away from the controversy and the current chairman Guo Ping came out hard against the US government policy and narrative. US government had also sent a big contingent to influence partners and policy. There is a sense that Europeans after initially supporting some sort of a ban might be backing off. Swapping 4G gear is neither trivial or inexpensive and with no resources to fund this exercise, it remains a theoretical exercise. Huawei has the financial muscle to get creative with 5G capex plans that many operators in Europe and Asia will find attractive.

Industrial Policy: We have been of the opinion that countries that lack a concrete Industrial policy will be at a big disadvantage in the Connected Intelligence Era. The next 30-40 years will be defined by how much governments can help shape the ecosystem through policy and investments. The open market approach in the US might be running against its limits in the face of stiff competition from China. Countries that think long-term and retool their education and training sectors will benefit when automation reigns supreme. Countries who don’t are in for a rude awakening.

Open Source Strides: Open source discussions are getting bigger and louder in the industry. The desire to lower cost has inspired operators to back efforts at Linux Foundation, Open Networking Forum, and Telecom Infra Project which are making meaningful contribution to the standards to build RAN and other key modules of the end-to-end infrastructure. The collaboration between the operations, infrastructure providers, and the webscale players is very helpful in managing the costs.

Resuscitating IoT: IoT is going through growing pains. After the initial optimism, the realism of what is needed to insert IoT into enterprise workflows has set in.

Partnerships: Another big underlying theme was that of partnerships and collaboration – between operators, competitors, operators and industrial players, OEMs and webscale players, academia and industry, and so on and so forth. No one company (except perhaps Amazon) can do it all and to make progress, one needs expertise from where it exists.

Best 5G Demo: Perhaps the best demo to demonstrate the power of 5G was from DoCoMo. They had two musicians playing together except one was appearing by hologram over 5G (Ho5G). The video latency was 200ms and the audio latency was approximately 20ms. It was quite impressive and could lead to some interesting music, media, and entertainment scenarios.

5G in Robotics: Cloud Robotics is another use case for 5G where Cloudminds is deploying Robots in China in industrial complexes.

5G Business Models: 5G will pretty much dominate the news for rest of the year with new handsets and networks coming online. The big questions are around business justification, pace of rollout, economic models, enterprise use cases that can scale, KPIs, revenue and business models, spectrum, policy, etc. We are involved heavily in all of these and will discuss when appropriate.

5G Gimmicks: The show won’t be complete without gimmicks. This year was no different. 5G was slapped across everything from 5G rescue missions to 5G surgery to 5G air taxis.

5G Firsts: There were a lot of announcements of firsts with 5G – 5G Shipyard (KT), 5G Stadium (AT&T), 5G Surgery (Vodafone), 5G mid-band (Sprint), Campus Network (DT), etc.

Automotive: V2X is taking over DSRC. BMW and Daimler discussed their Euro 1 billion venture to shape urban mobility.

Satellite Phones: While most of the tech action is on earth, there are startups trying to get space involved in the roadmap as well. UbiquitiLink sent a prototype satellite that works like a cell tower to provide coverage in areas where a cellular signal doesn’t exist.

Mobile Apps: Given that all the attention was on the 5G devices and 5G network announcements, mobile apps and related ecosystem had a dull presence, nothing interesting popped out.

6G: Though spoken in jest, 6G figured in 20% of the conversations.

Best Parties: Siris Capital, Facebook

Best Booths: Ericsson, Huawei

What were your observations?

Your feedback is always welcome

Chetan Sharma

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US Mobile Market Update 2018

Editor’s Note: We are heading to Barcelona for industry’s annual pilgrimage. We will be presenting, speaking with CXOs, and moderating sessions around 5G, business models, and revenue streams throughout MWC. Stay tuned.

http://www.chetansharma.com/publications/us-mobile-market-update-2018/

Highlights of the US Mobile Market Q4 2018 and 2018

US Mobile Industry Milestones for 2018

  • The overall US Wireless Ecosystem is worth over $1 trillion now becoming the first nation to cross this massive milestone.
  • AT&T crossed 25 Million connected cars on its network, the first operator to do so.
  • AT&T became the first US operator to cross the 150 million subscriptions milestone.
  • The mobile data consumption in China and India is growing so fast that both of them surpassed US, which was the data consumption leader to-date. US stands third now behind the two Asian giants.
  • Emerging devices started as a small group inside AT&T in 2008. Now there are over 100M connected devices in the US. AT&T has led the market each quarter since its inception.
  • Connected tablets had a torrid year in 2018 with each quarter seeing negative growth. Thus, for the first time, connected tablets were a net negative for the industry and might not recover from this trend.
  • Connected wearables had their best year to date and is making up for the declines in the connected tablet market. Connected Apple Watch has been the sleeper hit of 2018.
  • Almost 80% of the netadds came from the non-phone devices in 2018, making it the highest percentage share in history.
  • AT&T and Verizon appear in the top 5 mobile operators who exceeded 1 Exabyte/month in data traffic in 2018.
  • The subscriber base of T-Mobile+Sprint went past Verizon Wireless. If the merger were to be approved, the new entity is likely to become the number two operator in the country behind AT&T.

Other Industry Highlights for 2018

  • Perhaps the biggest story out of 2018 was that the industry is growing back again after three straight years of service revenue declines. The services revenues grew modestly in 2018 to reverse the declining and ominous trend.
  • After suffering the decline last year, Postpaid revenues also ticked up in 2018.
  • T-Mobile-Sprint merger is making its way through the regulatory approval process. (see more discussion below).
  • Thanks to device sales, overall revenues increased by 3.3%.
  • Verizon and AT&T launched their versions of 5G and kicked off the competitive frenzy that will go into 2019
  • The 5G discussions are getting louder and more substantive with each passing day. However, it is the first “G” transition when net-revenues is under pressure, so it presents a unique set of issues to the industry. (more 5G commentary below)
  • Postpaid ARPU declined for the year. However, because of the influx of non-phone devices into the mix, overall ARPU was down 1% YoY.
  • AT&T added the most number of connections to their network however they almost entirely came due to connected devices.
  • T-Mobile added two-thirds of industry’s postpaid subs.
  • AT&T also added the most number of connected cars for the year in the history of the industry. Its total tally stands at almost 29M connected vehicles. AT&T is now adding more than 2M cars to its network per quarter.
  • Smartphone penetration stood at 95%.
  • The quarter continued to see the decline in tablets indicating waning interest from consumers in the segment. In aggregate, operators haven’t added a new tablet sub in the last 9 quarters. This might have implications to the 5G strategy for OEMs.
  • While the operators struggled to maintain growth, the overall wireless market is growing rapidly thanks to the continued explosion on the 4th Wave by new digital players.
  • Verizon’s IoT/Telematics business grew 8% but the growth seems to have slowed down a bit.
  • Net Income was flat. Income/sub/mo gained as operators have tightened their belts and have improved their profitability despite pressure on revenues. All operators improved their profitability.
  • Industry capex is expected to grow slower than expected in 2019 though a lot will depend on the competitive dynamics in 1H19 and operators may yet boost their spend beyond the current guidance. Infrastructure vendors are benefiting from the current 5G cycle.
  • The overall industry upgrade cycle is over 3 years now.
  • In the race to a trillion, as we predicted, Apple became the first company to cross the milestone. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google also reported excellent earnings. Amazon is likely to be the first one to the $2 Trillion landmark barring the impact of potential regulations.
  • The average data consumption in the US touched 9 GB/mo by the end of 2018.

Other topics covered in the research update:

  • Dawn of the 5G Era. What should we expect in 2019?
  • 4th Wave drives the US market to a trillion dollars
  • 5G Maturity Model: Is 5G a race?
  • Mobile Edge Computing – An Opportunity Assessment Framework
  • The Connected Devices Journey to 100M
  • The rise of smartwatches and the decline of cellular tablets
  • 5G and the Industry Verticals
  • Revenue models for 5G
  • 5G – Known Knowns and Known Unknowns
  • Will T-Mobile/Sprint merger go through?
  • 5G Marketing and Positioning
  • Huawei gets caught in the geo-political crossfire
  • Mobile Data Growth: What’s Next?
  • MAGAF’s dominance
  • The shifts in Net-adds
  • What to expect in the coming months?
  • US Wireless Market 2018 Analysis
    • Service Revenues
    • ARPU
    • Subscribers
    • 4th Wave Progress
    • Connected Devices
    • Handsets

Editorial Note: Chetan Sharma Consulting Research Papers and Quarterly Updates have long shaped the industry dialog. Based on reader feedback and demand, we are pleased to announce that the papers and updates are now available as part of the subscription service. You can send a note to research@chetansharma.com to inquire about pricing.

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5G’s Impact on Verticals and Automation

At CES, I had the honor of moderating a wonderful panel on 5G’s Impact on Verticals and Automation with Intel, 5G Americas, and Cleveland Clinic. We had a good amount of time so went deeper into some of the areas. The video is now online.

Here’s a quick overview:

As the tsunami of change 5G brings to industries everywhere begins to wash over us, the hard questions of implementation and business model impacts are becoming clearer. Key industry verticals have a compelling need for 5G as they work to automate critical aspects of their business. As we move towards 5G, real-time automation which ranges from local compute to distributed large-scale compute to mission-critical compute experiences will be realized.

A need for remote monitoring, real-time automation, video and predictive maintenance are all needed to monitor utilities, patients and equipment; manage and track fleets, operations and assets; and automate operations in energy, healthcare, factories, and cities.

Each presents unique challenges and rewards for service providers, infrastructure vendors, and vertical implementers alike. There is no doubt that 5G will enable new experiences, but what does it take to pull it together? What will be the technical and application requirements? What services will such an infrastructure enable? How are verticals looking at this opportunity? And, can the lessons from 5G and its application to real-time automation provide a blue print for other applications and services?

Join Asha Keddy, 5G visionary and head of Intel’s Next Generation and Standards and Chetan Sharma, CEO of Chetan Sharma Consulting and a leading strategist in the mobile industry, as they bring together leaders from the ecosystem for a discussion on where we stand and what impact 5G will have on industries and automation.

Panel Participants

  • Asha Keddy – VP and GM of Next Generation and Standards, Intel Corporation
  • Chetan Sharma – CEO, Chetan Sharma Consulting
  • Chris Pearson – President, 5G Americas
  • Dr. Fabio Potenti – MD, MBA, FACS, FACRS, Cleveland Clinic Florida
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CES 2019 Observations

The first of the grand slam tech events kicked-off the year in Las Vegas last week. There was a fair amount of buzz about automotive, 5G, AI, IoT prior to the event. As the biggest gadget show on the planet, it brings together all sorts of players from around the globe under one umbrella. Despite the inability of the city to handle traffic and congestion, it is well worth your time to walk the show floor to gain insights from the chatter, marketing pitches, and unconfirmed rumors. This note presents our observations from CES.

  • The star of the show was clearly LG’s remarkable foldable TV (and it is coming to the market in 2019). I found their booth to be also the highlight of the show with 260 55” curved TV screens, booth was a feast for the eyes as they displayed stunning imagery and transformed you into a different world. Truly remarkable.
  • Not to be completely outdone, Samsung showed its line of 8K TV sets. Sony, TCL, Hisense also had their versions of the gadget.
  • CTA in partnership with Chetan Sharma Consulting released a paper on “5G US Market Impact” a first look at what can be expected from 5G in the US in the coming months and years.
  • Ginni Rometty, CEO of IBM probably delivered the best keynote of this year’s CES (and didn’t even mention 5G).
  • Google and Amazon were all over voice-enabling the gadgets. Google with its banners around the city, the experiential ride, human bunnies, and more marketing budget might have taken the limelight away from its rival.
  • Apple made its presence known with an in-your-face billboard on data privacy and by announcing its deals with OEMs to expand its music and content offerings indicating a strong push into services in 2019.
  • Lot of the 5G noise was outside the show in the press releases. Remember, last year, we said, 5G is going to be about the race for the 5G icon. As expected, inspired by history, the marketing tussles are out in the open and are only going to get intense. At CES itself, there was not much on the show floor related to 5G, nothing substantial on devices or infrastructure, the panel discussions were subdued and uninformative. However, during the keynotes, there were several noteworthy announcements. Also, Qualcomm indicated 30+ 5G handsets in 2019.
  • As we suggested before, 5G is most likely going to be an enterprise-driven network cycle. Thus, it was heartening to see Hans Vestberg, CEO of Verizon to devote almost entirety of his keynote on various enterprise scenarios and partnerships. I thought 5G initiatives around journalism (with New York Times), healthcare, media, drones, and logistics were meaningful. Similarly, AT&T’s John Donovan talked about 5G Hospitals and 5G Stadiums.
  • Samsung had a 5G prototype handset boxed in a glass enclosure. Royale beat Samsung to the display of a foldable handset, but it was clumsy at best. The new form factor holds promise and given what LG has been able to do with TV, we could see some really interesting possibilities in the coming days.
  • There were a lot of robots running around the show floor and keynotes but I would say Pepper at our Mobile Future Forward summit last year outperformed them all J
  • I had the opportunity to host a 5G session on the impact on vertical industries with Intel, Cleveland Clinic, and 5G Americas. One of the advantages of having a real physician on the panel is that you can start to connect the dots from capability to implementation and get the feel for the work that is needed to make 5G successful and how verticals can start working on new areas and emerging technologies to shape the workflow and supply chain for the better. We have a series of research papers coming out this year so stay tuned.
  • I have been expanding on my Connected Intelligence thesis to quantify disruption in the next decade. We presented some of the preliminary thoughts at last year’s Mobile Future Forward. I used that to setup the stage for 5G discussion and will be working more this year to understand the trajectory of disruption in a multi-dimensional environment.
  • To give you an example of interaction between the various technologies. A physician suggested that by overlaying VR Image over an actual brain that is being operated upon, there could be reduction in the 40% errors that result from guess-work based catheter incisions. I would say, it is a winner.
  • Privacy and Trust was central to most of the discussions from automotive to social media, consumer brands to fleet management, however, without regulatory oversight, there is no consensus on what data privacy and trust even means. If we are going to be serious about it either in self-governance or regulations, we as an industry need to step-up our game and give a hard look at what kind of roadmap we want to prepare for the next decade. My friend Shelly Palmer devoted his entire event around the “Trust” theme. We need more active conversations from all parties involved.
  • From the show, you wouldn’t know there are geopolitical tensions related to IP-theft and espionage. While Chinese employees and executives have been arrested in Poland and Canada, Chinese OEMs like Huawei, HiSense, ChangHong, Haier, TCL, CNC, and others had big booths to showcase their wares and roadmaps. In addition, there was a big startup and university contingent trying to break-in into the market though the total number of Chinese companies at the show declined. This year might define the contours of how future collaboration and trade might occur between China and the West.
  • IBM unveiled its Quantum Computer Q System which didn’t make much splash beyond the geeks but is likely to have a bigger impact in the coming decade.
  • IBM and Walmart are using Blockchain for Food security and have cut down a 7-day process down to 2.2 seconds. Yes, you read it right.
  • Just like how there are 50 shades of 5G, AI definitions keep evolving – a new one introduced by IBM – “broad AI” not to be confused with “Narrow AI” or “General AI.” Only 1% of the data that is produced is captured and analyzed. How do we get better at turning this data into knowledge? Lots of innovation to come in the next decade trying to address this architectural question. But companies running around with Excel spreadsheets and claiming to be AI-centric, please, Stop!
  • Data is central to most technological progress. Delta used data to reduce flight cancellations by 99% in one year. Fingernail sensors could predict early onset of Alzheimer’s disease years before and hypokalemia hours before it happens. Similarly, a more precise weather data can help avoid unexpected turbulence in air that can result in injuries.
  • IoT was everywhere from the useful, to the mundane, to downright useless waste – some highlights: an autonomous luggage for the times when you want to eat burrito with one hand and drink tequila with the other, a self-cleaning toilet for cats, well, why not?, Machine to bake your bread or do your laundry, snuggling robots, Alexa-enabled immersive toilets.
  • There was a lot of news on the automotive front. CES has become the Vegas Auto Show. Ford announced its commitment to CV2X, there were some really cool concept vehicles that can drive around autonomously (though they all looked the same, is our imagination limited to four wheels and four seats around a table?). Even Allstate was touting tech products for autonomous but perhaps my best insights in the segment came from Aptiv which is building the platform and system for managing data and operations within the vehicle as well as interaction with the outside world. The insights derived from data were particularly interesting especially movement data. They have been running several fleets in different cities. The precision in data analysis will be quite beneficial to multiple constituencies.
  • The Auto OEMs and the Mobile Operators are talking past each other and they are not on the same page. It will be beneficial for both the segments to have a more substantive discussion around the requirements and levelling of expectations and roadmap around networks, capabilities, and business models.
  • Bell’s AirTaxi created a fair amount of buzz but that thing is big and ugly, almost like a helicopter. I saw a better design from Lilium in Munich last year. I am optimistic however about the possibilities once some of the technical and regulatory hurdles are overcome.
  • The biggest buzz and the most energy was in the Eureka Park with 1200+ startups vying for attention. I must admit despite spending a fair amount of time in the exhibit area, it was hard to pick companies who are likely to make a difference, there was too much similarity in solutions, too much noise and not an effective way to navigate but the exhibit did indicate the tremendous amount of optimism and promise of the coming days.
  • Every company is a tech company. Just like our Connected Intelligence thesis postulates, the CI-led world forces companies to become more savvy with tech. Few years back, no one would have imagined Allstate, Energizer, P&G, Furion (ship builder had a massive yacht on display), and John Deere to be at the show.
  • There was a lot of talk about “Techlash” and the solutions to deal with it. One thing that concerns me is the lazy debate about breaking up the companies without understanding why and the implications. Policy makers haven’t even formulated a framework that can help them answer these tough questions for e.g. how would you measure competitive intensity in this digital environment when there are no longer straight-line value-chains? This was one of the primary reasons that DOJ lost in the AT&T trial, they didn’t have a theoretical basis for their arguments. We have proposed a 4th Wave Index way of thinking to measure the strengths of “all” players not just a few to really understand if certain players are getting too strong or if a merger will lead to dampening of competition. It is high-time, we upgrade our policy frameworks for the modern digital age or else it will lead to market failures, evidence of which are starting to build up in front of our eyes. Despite the obvious issues that the policy makers have to tackle, they can’t be handled in a haphazard way without developing a consistent framework for evaluating digital issues. That’s why we have proposed the formation of a new Federal Digital Commission to bring policy making into the 21st century.

Next – the mobile-heavyweight Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. 5G is expected to be centerstage to all conversations. See you there.

Have a successful 2019.

Best wishes,

Chetan

We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, and future research. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Feb 2019.

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this update are our clients.

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Mobile Predictions 2019

Dear friends,

A very happy, healthy, and prosperous 2019 to you and your family. Hope you had a good holiday and are ready to take on the new year with vigor and purpose. My thanks to all who participated in our 12th annual Mobile Predictions Survey. It is a unique polling of the insiders to get a glimpse into what the ecosystem is thinking about the future.

As I have mentioned before, we are entering the Connected Intelligence Era and the mobile industry is growing beyond its traditional borders to transform every vertical industry and by extension – the global GDP. Proof is in the numbers. By 2020. 44 Zettabytes of digital information will be created. Over 420 Exabytes of mobile data traffic (which btw will grow 15x+ in the next 5 years). More than 26 billion connected devices. At least 120 companies generating a billion or more from 4th wave. At least 8 companies generating a billion or more from IoT.

It is the year that 5G will officially move from hype to deployment cycle. 2018 was a great year for the industry and while the opportunities at the intersection Connected Intelligence, Vertical Industries, and emerging technologies like 5G, AI, and Robotics are likely to unleash a decade long innovation cycle, there are dark clouds on the horizon – trade wards, slowing economies, regional conflicts can adversely impact the trajectory. There are a number of unanswered questions about the multi-dimensional tech industry. We will perhaps start to understand the complexity and the potential in 2019.

There were a number of big stories in 2018 – Early 5G tussles, privacy and data woes of the Internet players, Industry-defining M&As, security and data breaches, trillion dollar landmark, the rise of AI/ML as a dominant differentiator, trade wars, autonomous vehicles, the Amazon juggernaut, Microsoft’s resilience and resurgence, and much more. The fact that we are selling more non-phone devices than phone devices on cellular networks in the US should be a hint of things to come. Given the rise of AI in 2018, the role of data will continue to take centerstage in 2019 from all dimensions. The next five years are going to be full of action, surprises, and transformation. Stay with us and we will keep you posted.

We do our annual survey to engage our knowledgeable community on trends and events to keep us informed. The composite view gives a glimpse into the future scenarios. Executives, developers, and insiders from leading mobile companies and startups from across the value chain and from around the globe participated to educate us on what to expect of 2019. The survey draws upon the unique collective wisdom of the folks who are making it happen. Thanks for being part of our annual ritual.

The survey addressed several key questions in front of us in 2019 such as 5G’s pace and expectations, 5G leaders and business models, likely big stories of this year, impact of automation, new revenue sources, impact on industry verticals, and of course, the crowd favorite – Mobile person of the year. Check out the survey to see how your peers voted.

Welcome 2019!

Kind regards,

Research Team

Chetan Sharma Consulting

http://www.chetansharma.com/insights